ByronBlog

Byron Matthews, a sociologist retired from the University of Maryland Baltimore County and a partner in an educational software company, lives near Santa Fe, NM.

My Photo
Name:
Location: New Mexico, United States

Sunday, July 30, 2006

Israeli Debacle

Israel had to go in hard and fast, and get the job done before "international opinion" could be mobilized to destroy their offensive. They had ample reason under international law to do that. But Israel didn't do that, allowing the media to follow its inclinations and focus coverage on minute-by-minute casualty counts of innocents. Once that happens, the media airheads have eyes and ears for nothing else, and any coverage of the strategic necessity, purpose, and course of the war disappears, in favor of one tear-jerking human interest story after another. Al-Jazeera needs no camera crews to spin the story for the Arab world, our media does their work for them, better than they could do themselves.

Game, set, match.

Hezbollah, et al., have learned a big lesson here. Do what it takes (charitable works!) to insinuate yourself among the civilian population, and then launch attacks from behind that shield, as well as the verbal shield of "proportionality." The obvious tactic is to draw enemy fire onto schools, mosques, hospitals, day-care centers, UN posts, etc. All moral opprobrium then falls on the other side, and the moral (!) balance falls your way. Theater of the absurd. The result will be some kind of cease fire that largely legitimizes a terrorist organization and secures their right to exist -- unlike Israel's. Kofi Annan will round up an "international force" to provide security for Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. All it cost Hezbollah was a few fighters and, temporarily, a small portion of their missile arsenal. Songs will be sung about this around jihadist campfires for generations; the morale boost for them is probably impossible to overestimate.

The IDF did not lose this war, the Israeli political leadership did. It is too late for a do-over. The loss of Sharon was huge. The Olmert government is a disaster.

I would dearly love to be wrong about all of this.

Saturday, July 29, 2006

Network Warfare

Hezbollah is winning its war with Israel, and two myths are about to be shattered at once: First, that the Israeli military can take out any foe in that part of the world, and second, that Muslims can't fight. The effect of this is going to be enormous, and entirely bad for the West.

I remember as a schoolkid taking pleasure at the idea of American revolutionaries hiding behind trees, Indian-style, picking off the disciplined British troops in their formations. The Brits considered that unfair, a violation of the rules of proper warfare. Well, what goes around. I've felt for quite a while that the West is no better than 50/50 against the Islamists, due to their large advantage in moral resources. What makes us as good as 50/50, I've thought, is our military and weapons advantages. But those advantages are not turning out to be decisive. The article A New Enemy Gains On the U.S. describes a new form of asymmetrical warfare that is rapidly evolving on the other side. The responses discussed toward the end of the article look very weak to me. Forget 50/50, I'd say.

Monday, July 17, 2006

Evolution, Creationism, And Osama Bin Laden

EVOLUTION, CREATIONISM, AND OSAMA BIN LADEN

At the 81st anniversary of the Scopes Trial, the dispute over evolution persists like a backwoods feud. If anything, Darwin’s theory is under stronger challenge today than it was in that sweltering Tennessee courthouse back in 1925. The opposition to evolution comes, now as then, from one or another version of creationism, the belief that the vast complexities of nature can only be the product of a designing intelligence. But the evolution debate is an exercise that reflects credit on neither science nor religion, and it is something we could well do without at the dawn of a civilizational conflict with resurgent Islam.

There were good reasons to expect that this controversy would by now exist only as a memory from an earlier, less enlightened time. Biology, after all, has made spectacular progress since 1925, and virtually all of it rests on a base of evolutionary theory. Religion has not stood still, either, as the events of the past century provoked a searching re-examination of theological presuppositions and priorities in virtually every religious community. Nevertheless, continuing failures by both science and religion allow the dispute to drag on. A perverse and unintended consequence of this lamentable pas de deux may be to impair our ability to sustain a difficult and prolonged global war against Islamic militancy.

Science has failed by doing a pathetically inadequate job of presenting a coherent and convincing case for evolution. The excuses are many, and none of them hold water. Claiming to be too busy writing proposals and supervising graduate students, for example, is a description of current priorities, not a justification for them. Scientists are generally loathe to admit that they are losing a war of ideas, and they refuse to give their opponents nearly enough credit for fighting that war with tenacity and skill. Dismissing creationism as unworthy of being answered in a systematic and sustained way is proving a poor strategy. Surveys of public opinion indicate just how poor: a March 1994 Harris poll found that 44% of adult Americans thought humans developed from earlier species; by June 2005 the percentage had fallen to 38%.

Public understanding of the most elementary principles of natural selection is practically nonexistent, despite the fact that the basic ideas are easy to grasp and have been around for 150 years. Comprehension does not guarantee acceptance, of course, but once the basic mechanisms of evolution are understood they carry great plausibility for most people. That the level of public knowledge is so low can only be the result of a scandalously half-hearted and ineffective educational effort. Better results will not come from a further proliferation of elaborate but poorly-focused websites, or more lavishly illustrated textbooks. This is not something that can be farmed out. Effective teaching will require that scientists take a page from the creationists’ playbook, and climb down out of the ivory tower to preach the scientific message personally and directly in the give-and-take of public forums.

Creationists demonstrate how effective that kind of outreach can be, as they work to influence public opinion against evolutionary theory. It’s easier than it ought to be, because the meager educational efforts of the scientific community make this tantamount to writing on a collection of blank slates. Although one might well question whether there is anything theologically important at stake that justifies this anti-evolution effort, it’s hard to argue with success. Creationists take encouragement from their gains so far, and they no doubt feel on the edge of a turning tide. But these are cheap victories, depending on uninformed audiences and an opponent who rarely bothers to show up.

Worse, creationism is frequently promoted with a dismaying lack of intellectual honesty. For one example, creationists enjoy pointing to the impossibly small probability that some complex structure, like a human eye, could occur as a product of random chance. It would be like shaking a box of Scrabble tiles, then opening the box to find they spell the Gettysburg Address -- only a lot less likely. So, the fact that such structures do exist must reflect the activity of an intelligent designer, a purposeful arranger of the tiles.

But that argument is beside the point, because evolution doesn’t work by popping up complex structures as one-time chance events; rather, they form by the gradual accretion of successful (adaptive) variations. Randomly generated letters can build the Gettysburg Address by accretion, if successes can be saved: F, FO, FOU, FOUR, FOURS, FOURSC, and so on. Similarly, evolution makes an eye over eons of time by accreting improvements to what started out as primitive light-sensitive cells, not by miraculously hitting on the finished product in all its complexity, the prize in some bizarre biological lottery.

The point is not that creationist arguments like this are bogus, but that the people who present them know that they are bogus. This form of persuasion is not an intellectually honest attempt to convey a truth, but merely a polemical tactic to dominate a discussion by taking advantage of the ignorance of the audience. Such hucksterism is made possible, of course, by science’s having defaulted in its educational role. But what does any of this have to do with Osama bin Laden?

We find ourselves in a civilizational war against an enemy energized by unconditional belief in a religion of unquestioned authority, which permeates every aspect of his society. The worldview of the jihadist is therefore clear, absolute, and profoundly enchanted; his mission partakes of the sacred, and so is constrained neither by doubt nor by concern for personal survival in this world. It would be hard to conjure up a more formidable enemy than this, and a prolonged war against him may be decided as much by the depth of each side’s moral resources as by technology and military hardware. If so, the evolution debate isn’t helping our side one bit.

In sharp contrast to their Islamic counterparts, Western intellectuals have waged an unrelenting war against religion, portraying it as an elaborate hoax. Postmodernism has sought, above all, to debunk the notion of an objective moral order, of moral absolutes backed by divine imperative. True or not, that conclusion renders moral law a matter of convention and therefore negotiable. In every society where that view has prevailed, moral law has sooner or later been negotiated into irrelevance. But even absent that kind of catastrophic outcome, at some point such skepticism surely becomes corrosive of the traditions and non-rational commitments necessary to maintain a collective moral spine. Only religion has significant authority in insisting on a transcendental basis for moral law; no other societal institution has standing to advance that case. But to do that effectively, religion must be jealously protective of its own credibility, stature, and right to be taken seriously. Wrangling over evolution subverts all such claims.

The fact that none of us are about to don a suicide vest for Presbyterianism or Reform Judaism is something to be proud of, without doubt. But it also raises questions about our Islamist enemy, the non-rational roots of his commitment, how we are different from him, and how that difference could affect the outcome of a difficult, long-duration conflict. We may imagine that rational-intellectual systems (socialism, perhaps, for Europeans) or political ideals (freedom and democracy for Americans) can inspire similarly deep commitments, or that they can function like religions in the crunch. But experience could prove us wrong about that; an important function of religion must be to keep us from putting all of our societal eggs into that basket.

Eager to question the reality of a divine basis for moral law, intellectuals miss more existentially important questions: Can a society survive under extended duress if people do not believe that a transcendent view of the world is, in some sense, important and true, and worth fighting for? What would prevent a society like that from negotiating itself onto history's ash heap? Religion has a unique and profound responsibility with respect to questions like that. Squandering its credibility in a dispute over evolution, in effect waving a chimpanzee femur in a tent on the edge of town, is an exercise in irresponsibility. It is highly ironic that such behavior persists as a kind of collateral damage from a continuing failure by the scientific establishment.

If we are to garner the moral resources to prevail in what promises to be a decades-long and bitter war against militant Islam, religion will need to earn the respect of people not inclined to offer it. It can do that by entering into a serious discussion about the moral foundations necessary for a successfully enduring society. Devoting time and effort to a dispute about evolution accomplishes nothing except to confirm religion as an object of ridicule among its cultured despisers. We need to leave that Tennessee courthouse behind.

Wednesday, July 12, 2006

Ever Upward

Hizbollah is demanding the release of their hero Sami Kuntar, among others, in return for the latest kidnapped Israeli soldiers. Hizbollah and Hamas want war with Israel, and it looks like they are about to get it, with Syria perhaps thrown in to make the trifecta. Iran, who had its representatives present at the North Korean missile launches, bides its time while the UN enjoys a leisurely catered lunch and promises to issue a report one of these days, if Russia doesn't object. The Democrats, who are able to take religious war seriously only long enough to declare defeat, keep looking at their watches, wondering when they can get back to talking about health care and the minimum wage. The Europeans believe their Palestinian project would have gone OK if only there weren't so many Jews, an inconvenience for which they certainly cannot be blamed. India, still swabbing blood and body parts from railway carriages, thinks it's a bit wider thing than that, and proceeds with the warp-speed modernization of her huge military. How many more assassination attempts will Musharaf survive next door in nuclear Pakistan, and to whom will the reins pass when his security runs out? Bin Laden in a landslide? The progress of humanity is an inspiring thing to behold.

Byron


Some background on Sami Kuntar:
Around midnight, we were asleep in our apartment when four terrorists, sent by Abu Abbas from Lebanon, landed in a rubber boat on the beach two blocks away. Gunfire and exploding grenades awakened us as the terrorists burst into our building.

Desperately, we sought to hide. Danny helped our neighbor climb into a crawl space above our bedroom; I went in behind her with Yael in my arms. Then, Danny grabbed Einat and was dashing out the front door to take refuge in an underground shelter when the terrorists came crashing into our flat.

They held Danny and Einat while they searched for me and Yael, knowing others lived in the apartment. If Yael cried out, they would find us. So I kept my hand over her mouth, hoping she could breathe. As I lay there, I remembered my mother telling me how she had hidden from the Nazis during the Holocaust.

As police began to arrive, the terrorists took Danny and Einat down to the beach. There, according to eyewitnesses, one of them shot Danny in front of Einat, so that his death would be the last thing she would ever see. Then, he smashed my little girl’s skull in against a rock with his rifle butt. That terrorist was Samir Kuntar.

By the time we were rescued from the crawl space hours later, Yael, too, was dead. In trying to save all our lives, I had smothered her.