Splat
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
If the Strongly Approve/Disapproves actually vote this way, and the remaining 31% split 50/50, then it would be a 15-pt loss in the general election. I can't find the detailed breakdown, but it would be worse than that if the 31% split against Obama, which seems likely, and if those who want the incumbent administration tossed out are more likely to show up and vote, which also seems likely.
Obama needs an economic miracle, but where does that come from? His own policies seem designed to handicap economic growth, not stimulate it. Even improving growth numbers won't do it unless they're accompanied by significant decreases in unemployment. Nobody is expecting much of that, and all those temp Census hires being dumped back on the job market won't help a bit. Obama got big majorities among young voters, but now the unemployment problem is particularly acute for the young -- and beginning to appear chronic. There's no Unemployment Compensation for people trying to find their first job. Obama was very attractive to college students; he may be less so to those same voters if they are now unemployed or underemployed, doing fruitless job searches on the web from Mom's basement. Not the Change they were Hoping for.
As we go along, it will be interesting to follow the "Right Direction - Wrong Direction" poll numbers, and the pace of Congressional retirements. I suspect that plenty of Dems are already investigating their private sector options. Gotta jump while there are still some prime K Street lifeboats, etc., left to jump into. Last one out risks becoming, say, Commissioner of a Triple-A baseball league, or Bob Dole's replacement as pitchman for Viagra.
Byron
Down 7 points in 4 days:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 27% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-two percent (42%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -15.
If the Strongly Approve/Disapproves actually vote this way, and the remaining 31% split 50/50, then it would be a 15-pt loss in the general election. I can't find the detailed breakdown, but it would be worse than that if the 31% split against Obama, which seems likely, and if those who want the incumbent administration tossed out are more likely to show up and vote, which also seems likely.
Obama needs an economic miracle, but where does that come from? His own policies seem designed to handicap economic growth, not stimulate it. Even improving growth numbers won't do it unless they're accompanied by significant decreases in unemployment. Nobody is expecting much of that, and all those temp Census hires being dumped back on the job market won't help a bit. Obama got big majorities among young voters, but now the unemployment problem is particularly acute for the young -- and beginning to appear chronic. There's no Unemployment Compensation for people trying to find their first job. Obama was very attractive to college students; he may be less so to those same voters if they are now unemployed or underemployed, doing fruitless job searches on the web from Mom's basement. Not the Change they were Hoping for.
As we go along, it will be interesting to follow the "Right Direction - Wrong Direction" poll numbers, and the pace of Congressional retirements. I suspect that plenty of Dems are already investigating their private sector options. Gotta jump while there are still some prime K Street lifeboats, etc., left to jump into. Last one out risks becoming, say, Commissioner of a Triple-A baseball league, or Bob Dole's replacement as pitchman for Viagra.
Byron
posted by Byron | Sunday, April 18, 2010
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