ByronBlog

Byron Matthews, a sociologist retired from the University of Maryland Baltimore County and a partner in an educational software company, lives near Santa Fe, NM.

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Location: New Mexico, United States

Friday, November 01, 2013

Arab Spring Update

Syria becomes largest home to al Qaeda; jihadists find safe haven to plot attacks
More Al Qaeda members now living in Syria than in any other country on earth


My goodness, Obama's signature Hope-and-Change(TM) foreign policy adventure is certainly proceeding nicely, isn't it?

Al Qaeda has stolen the revolution to overthrow Assad, the uprising that we encouraged with mighty doses of facile ObamaRhetoric(TM).  But, of course, there was no follow-up in the form of the actual military support that would have given the rebels half a chance, and that they had every reason to expect as they stepped up and put their lives on the line. Instead, Obama pulled a Benghazi and left the poor bastards hung out to be exterminated. That created the opening for Syria to become a major base for al Qaeda, which it now is, bordering Israel.  Good show, Commander-in-Chief Obama!

Having stabbed the rebels in the back, Obama faces a choice between Assad and al Qaeda. Now that Assad has been certified as having destroyed his chemical weapons, the obviously rational move would be to support him against al Qaeda, because they are the vastly larger threat to the U.S.  If there's any rocket surgery involved in that decision, sorry, but I don't see it.

So, anybody want to estimate the probability of Obama deciding that way? I'll place my chip on zero.

(He may try to take refuge in the theory that Assad and al Qaeda will grind each other to dust, so all we have to do is stand by and watch it happen. I think that's wishful thinking. Al Qaeda is not a conventional army, and its minimal logistical requirements mean that it does not need to control the cities, but merely to terrorize them. About all al Qaeda requires are operational bases for recruitment and training, and those can be villages in the hinterlands. To root out and defeat al Qaeda, Assad would need an army many times the size of any he could hope to assemble, train, and supply.)

After Obama's second term at long last expires, how many years will it take to undo the foreign relations mess this puffed-up fool leaves behind? OK, just the over-under:  I'd guess 10.  Unless Benghazi Hillary follows him. In that case, I don't even want to guess.  

Byron

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