Arab Spring?
A dead OBL ends up merely a footnote because, so far, it's a democratic Iraq that's turning out to be the model, as neo-cons like me argued it could. I think there have been two keys to the flow of events.
(1) First was Bush's steadfastness and foresight with respect to Iraq. He was spot-on correct from Day One, and he never wavered. History will show that the defeat of Saddam Hussein is where necessary transformational reform in the Arab world began. The Iraq War was the right war, in the right place, at the right time. The difficulty was that the rationale for the war was a long-term, civilizational rationale, and as such it was beyond the capacity or willingness of many people to comprehend. It still is.
(2) Second was the 9-11 attacks themselves, which were an enormous, decisive strategic mistake. The Islamists got over-confident and impatient, foolishly went for a kill-shot on the US. To say they over-played their hand is to vastly understate the magnitude of the error. The 9-11 attacks were probably decisive for the future of the Mid-East, because they created enough public outrage in the US to make launching the Iraq War possible; and it's the results of that war, in turn, that have made the transformation of the Arab world a possibility (see #1). No 9-11 attacks, no Iraq War -- and it's painful to imagine what the situation would be now.
Byron
(1) First was Bush's steadfastness and foresight with respect to Iraq. He was spot-on correct from Day One, and he never wavered. History will show that the defeat of Saddam Hussein is where necessary transformational reform in the Arab world began. The Iraq War was the right war, in the right place, at the right time. The difficulty was that the rationale for the war was a long-term, civilizational rationale, and as such it was beyond the capacity or willingness of many people to comprehend. It still is.
(2) Second was the 9-11 attacks themselves, which were an enormous, decisive strategic mistake. The Islamists got over-confident and impatient, foolishly went for a kill-shot on the US. To say they over-played their hand is to vastly understate the magnitude of the error. The 9-11 attacks were probably decisive for the future of the Mid-East, because they created enough public outrage in the US to make launching the Iraq War possible; and it's the results of that war, in turn, that have made the transformation of the Arab world a possibility (see #1). No 9-11 attacks, no Iraq War -- and it's painful to imagine what the situation would be now.
Byron
posted by Byron | Tuesday, May 03, 2011
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home