ByronBlog

Byron Matthews, a sociologist retired from the University of Maryland Baltimore County and a partner in an educational software company, lives near Santa Fe, NM.

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Location: New Mexico, United States

Friday, February 04, 2011

Wonderful...

Coming Soon: A 300-Percent Increase in Foreclosures

So what will this mean when the last moratorium is lifted, the last show-me-the-note lawsuit gets thrown out of court, and the last loan modification has failed? . . there could be roughly three times as many homes on the market as there are now. Lawler points to 1,445,000 completed foreclosures and short sales at the end of 2010, compared with 4,296,01 mortgages that are past due by 90 days or more.


Aside: Eight or nine years ago, Central Avenue (old Rt. 66) coming from the east into Albuquerque had an incredible number of very large sales lots offering manufactured homes, ready to be towed onto your lot. These are far cheaper than a regular house, and there was a huge market for them because they were what a lot of people could afford. (They were especially numerous in fast-growing states that attract lots of retirees and the less affluent: Florida and Arizona, and I'll bet Nevada, too.) When sub-prime mortgages, liar loans, etc., became available the sales places on Central just disappeared, it seemed like over night, went from a couple of dozen, at least, to none. Now I notice a couple are in business again, and I suspect that more will be opening.

One way to describe what happened is that a market had developed to answer the demand for detached housing from people who could not qualify for a mortgage to buy a site-built house. Barney Frank and his ilk destroyed that market, people went from dwellings they could afford to ones they couldn't, and the rest is a sad, wasteful, monumentally expensive and destructive story that is still years from being over.

When the manufactured home sales lots come back in force along Central Avenue, I think it will be an indicator that housing markets have come back to some rational equilibrium. The lesson, of course, is that you mess with markets at your peril, and everybody else's peril, too. Unfortunately, it's a lesson that liberal Democrats are incapable of learning.

Byron

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