The "Roe Effect" Hypothesis

Have you seen this "Roe Effect" hypothesis? The idea is that those not born are not a random sample of the population, being on average more poor, black, disorganized, etc. Those that are born are somewhat select, so to speak. I don't know if this has a lot of validity, but it certainly has some. Most speculation about this has focused on crime rates, but there is also the possibility of a political effect:

Generation Roe
For another interesting finding of the Post/ABC poll, look at this table, which shows the breakdown of registered voters' presidential preferences by age:

	Bush	Kerry
18-30	53%	41%
31-34	50%	44%
45-60	53%	43%
61+	48%	45%
Total	51%	44%

(To see the original data, go to the link atop this item and then select a breakdown by age.)

Bush's overall margin is 7%, but his 12% margin among 18- to 30-year-olds exceeds that of all other age groups. This is the group born since 1973, when the Supreme Court decided Roe v. Wade.